Predictions for a New Year

One may as well start with politics.

Reliable Righty Rick Santorum is surging in Iowa, as nearly everyone in the Republican Field (except Jon Huntsman) did before him. The candidates and the media, still stunned from liquor and rich food and other holiday distractions, no doubt, haven't had time to give him the thrashing he's due to get, if not in time for the caucus voting on Tuesday. Thus, he could very well win on Tuesday, in Iowa. He very well might. Even though it's getting more obvious by the day what the final outcome will be ...

Romney. Versus Obama. Obama wins. Gets stuck for four more years unraveling a country from the excess and expectations brought on largely by its post-WWII good fortune.

Still—that doesn't mean Iowa has to set the tone and kill all the drama and pageant before potentially each and every Republican candidate has a turn at being in first place. Moreover, the Republican Show in Iowa, along with being a munificent economic windfall to the state, tends to give brief, unrealistic, and ulitimately fleeting hope to personalities such as Pat Buchanan, Pat Robertson, Mike Huckabee—and now, just maybe, to Rick Santorum.

So, expect Santorum to be the next candidate up, the next candidate down, in the Republican's surprisingly egalitarian nod to life imitating art, to Uncle Andy's famous prediction that all of us (with the possible exception of Jon Huntsman) will have fifteen minutes of fame.

Ron Paul? Newt Gingrich? Been there, done that. So last year.

And what are we supposed to do for fun when and if it becomes painfully obvious (well before the pageant directors think it should) that Mitt Romney is going to get the nomination?

Wait to see Ron Paul jump in as a third party spoiler.

Don't laugh, he probably will. Especially if he does well in Iowa. Especially if he figures the Republicans don't have a chance in November. Which they probably don't, regardless of the state of the economy, which, btw, won't so much recover as continue on like a formerly top-notch, ever hopeful, 46-year-old athlete who is accident-prone, with high deductibles.

Any other time in recent memory, running against even one Republican who wasn't either plain nuts or beset with a host of unruly contradictions, and Obama would be toast in November.

But not this time, not with this crowd.

This time conventional wisdom gets turned on its head, and a poor economy will work in Obama's favor. Ironically, what Obama needs to worry about, if not very much (and contrary to everything you've heard), is the prospect that housing and the stock market will rise up again, fueling a renewed belief in hunky dory expansive living brought about by tax cuts and giveaways to the fortunate, alleviating for just enough time the nagging fear that, if something doesn't give, and the Republicans axe our Medicare and Social Security, our grown children and poor relatives will be living in our basement—or us in theirs—leaving no extra cash for sushi, or a spa day, a trip to Cancun, none of that. And we'll all be living like people did before that evil socialist Roosevelt became president.

More likely, though, 2012 will be a tipping point, slouching toward aging Boomers (the vast majority of them reckoning with much less cash than they'd hoped to have by now) looking to protect their tax-payer funded entitlements more than their 401K returns. It'll be a difficult pill to swallow—getting by on 200K for the next twenty years rather than the 2 million they were counting on, if only their house and 401K had continued to go up 15%-20% a year for the next 15-20 years—but swallow it they will.

Which will have its consequences, like everything else the Boomers decide to do.

No, I'm thinking the Fear Vote this year, contrary to recent convention, votes Democratic.

And that many of those who left the fold to trust the hotshots and their methodologies will be coming home—like the Boomerangs.

And yes, it'll be hard when they discover that, eternal faith in compounded returns wasn't really where it was at, after some job creator who didn't, some faceless entity flush with cash and recognized as having rights by the Supreme Court of the United States, has taken from them everything they can steal ...

"How does it feel?" I can already hear Obama asking the crowd—at least I wish he would. And then Romney replying, "Hey, you fucked up. You trusted us!"

Wouldn't that be fun? We wouldn't need Ron Paul if we could count on that.

Another thing ... our faith-based currency, the almighty dollar, will continue to be strong, at least relative to the rest of the world's faith-based currencies currently in more or less precipitous decline. This so long as Europe's woes keep us on the brink of a global recession, and that traders on the FOREX, known to have the hearts and loyalty of lizards, don't decide otherwise. In any event, know that much of the world's fate is at their fingertips on any given day. Rejoice in the fact that they can bring excitement for no particular reason, with a simple pratfall, to a world that craves it, and makes bank from it.

Gold will still see $2000 before it sees $1000, and I will still take bets of up to $100 from anyone who thinks otherwise. Though gold will languish in the shadows and perceived safety of a strong dollar, test the mettle and faith of those crazy Gold Bugs, in time people without jobs, in houses under water, will cry out in unison with large banks and hedge funds hungry for hot money to leverage: "Help us, Helicoptor Ben! You're our only hope!"

And Ben will say, Better money from a keystroke, raining from the sky, than a depression.

And we shall be thankful, possibly, maybe (who knows?), that contrary to what history would suggest from a bunch of nations absurdly in debt, over-committed, and threatened with losing all that we've been trained to believe is near and dear to us, the narrative to our times may well end up looking more like a game of Monopoly (albeit, stuffed full with added dollars) than a game of Risk. After all, why go to war with China when we could just let them buy us. One of the perks of globalization. Of letting the Central Banks and Treasury Tim sort it out for us.

On lighter topics ...

Timmy and the Broncos, having luxuriated in their fifteen minutes of fame and endearment to the Almighty, will get beaten in a way consistent with reversion to the mean probabilities, with generous padding on the spread, next Sunday afternoon. By the fourth quarter John Elway will be imagining how, without incurring death threats from the Tim Zealots, he might pick up Matt Flynn in the off-season.

Tonight, the luck goes to Luck ...

And, sooner or later there will be snow in the mountains! Enough that you can ski or board without scratching up the equipment on rocks and gravel.

Brad Pitt will win Best-Actor at the Oscars, and maybe at the Golden Globes, whether for Moneyball or The Tree of Life remains to be seen.

Jonah Hill, however, will win Best Supporting Actor for his role in Moneyball—though he's had other good roles this year as well.

Meryl Streep will likely get nominated again for The Iron Lady. But who else, among the actresses? Help me out ...

What else?

If you're a pessimist, this'll be a good decade to get a book out, to crow on at parties, yet maybe not such a good decade to quit a good job, sell a profitable business, to write a book. Still, for another ten years or so, maybe longer if you're lucky, you'll feel as good as you'll feel your whole life being a pessimist.

That said, to the rest of you, quit worrying, it'll all be fine. The species isn't geared to manage luxury anyway. Having it all isn't our bag as humans. Seriously, the only thing we like better than a good mess to fix is a well-constructed, sturdy cage. And the desire between the two fluctuates; it's our idiom.

Look for lots of it in 2012.

And try to smile more.

Cheers!